Viktor Hovland
Southwind history is excellent: T2 in 2024, T13 in 2023 and T20 in 2022. Current form keeps him outside the main board, but the course record is too strong to ignore.
Course historyIron ceiling
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Fantasy Golf Picks: Who Can Win at TPC Southwind?
The FedExCup Playoffs begin with a compact, elite field and four guaranteed rounds at TPC Southwind. The strongest fantasy targets combine current scoring confidence with the ability to control a demanding par-70 course where water, narrow landing areas, long par 3s and firm approach targets can turn one loose stretch into a major leaderboard swing.
The top of this field is strong enough that pure name value is not enough. The players pushed highest on the board are the ones arriving with recent high finishes and a game that can keep producing birdie chances without giving shots back through poor positioning.
The Top 50 advancement race adds another layer of pressure, especially for players starting near the bubble, but the CaddyBytes rankings below are built first around winning and high-finish upside in Memphis.
What Matters at TPC Southwind
TPC Southwind is a par-70, 7,288-yard playoff test. It rewards controlled aggression more than reckless power. Water is constantly in play, fairway position matters, several par 3s demand precise long-iron control, and the limited par-5 opportunities make strong par-4 scoring especially important.
Controlled Tee Shots
Length is useful, but the best Memphis profiles combine enough power with position. Players who repeatedly find usable angles can attack without bringing water and difficult recoveries into every hole.
Control
Position
Green-Hitting Pressure
Strong iron players can keep creating chances on a course where scrambling becomes difficult when misses finish near water, bunkers or the wrong side of the green.
Approach play
GIR pressure
Par-4 Scoring
With only two par 5s, players cannot depend on easy scoring holes. The winner usually needs repeated birdie chances on the par 4s while avoiding doubles.
Birdie chances
Bogey control
Bermuda Conversion
Good ball striking still needs a putter that can turn six- to fifteen-foot chances into momentum. A hot week on the greens can separate several otherwise similar contenders.
Putting
Conversion
Extra numbers worth noting:
Scheffler enters among the TOUR leaders in green-hitting and birdie production; Fitzpatrick has been one of the strongest approach players; Burns owns one of the best putting profiles; and Åberg, Cameron Young, Brennan and Min Woo Lee all bring strong driving combinations.
Who's Hot: 20 Players Carrying the Best Recent High-Finish Signals
This is the strongest recent-results group from the playoff field entering Memphis. Wins come first, then repeated top finishes and players who have stayed near the top of leaderboards during the closing summer run.
| Hot Rank | Player | Recent High Finish | Memphis Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hideki Matsuyama | T3 3M Open; T5 Rocket Classic; T7 Wyndham | Three straight high finishes plus a Southwind victory on the résumé. |
| 2 | Scottie Scheffler | T4 The Open; 2nd 3M Open | World-class tee-to-green control and two elite finishes in his last two starts. |
| 3 | Tom Kim | Won Genesis Scottish Open; T5 Wyndham | Recent win plus another top five immediately before Memphis. |
| 4 | Ryan Fox | Won The Open Championship | Major-championship winner with enough par-4 scoring strength to stay dangerous. |
| 5 | Michael Brennan | Won Wyndham; T15 Rocket Classic | Hottest final-week riser in the field and playing with complete freedom after reaching the Playoffs. |
| 6 | Jackson Koivun | Won 3M Open | Already proved he can close a PGA TOUR event; now gets four guaranteed playoff rounds. |
| 7 | Michael Thorbjornsen | Won Rocket Classic | Fresh winner with enough power and scoring to create another run. |
| 8 | Cameron Young | 2nd The Open; T8 Rocket Classic | Repeated high finishes and one of the strongest complete driving profiles in the field. |
| 9 | Xander Schauffele | 2nd Rocket Classic | Recent runner-up plus elite four-round consistency. |
| 10 | Min Woo Lee | 2nd Genesis Scottish Open | Powerful tee game and fresh runner-up form. |
| 11 | Sam Burns | 3rd The Open | Major contention plus one of the strongest putting ceilings in the field. |
| 12 | Matt Fitzpatrick | T3 Genesis Scottish Open | Sharp approach play, positional strength and a high current FedExCup seed. |
| 13 | Robert MacIntyre | T3 Genesis Scottish Open | Strong recent high finish with a patient, controlled scoring profile. |
| 14 | Tommy Fleetwood | T4 The Open; T13 Genesis Scottish Open | Repeated high-level form and proven Southwind comfort. |
| 15 | Brian Harman | T3 3M Open | Recent top three, though the Wyndham missed cut adds a small caution flag. |
| 16 | Ludvig Åberg | T9 The Open | Elite driving profile with enough iron quality for a Southwind move. |
| 17 | Rory McIlroy | T7 Genesis Scottish Open | Highest-end winning ceiling remains obvious even after a quieter Open. |
| 18 | Alex Noren | T7 Wyndham Championship | Fresh top 10 and starts the Playoffs close enough to the Top 50 line for every position to matter. |
| 19 | Ryan Gerard | T8 Rocket Classic | High-end approach upside, but a Wyndham missed cut cools the momentum slightly. |
| 20 | Justin Thomas | T14 Wyndham Championship | Closed the regular season with a solid top-15 result and has the ceiling to climb quickly. |
FedEx St. Jude Championship Player Fit Board: Top 20
The order changes when the current hot group is matched against TPC Southwind. Players with cleaner tee-to-green control, repeatable green access, strong par-4 scoring and enough putting to convert move up. Players who arrive hot but depend on loose power or one-dimensional scoring move down.
| Fit Rank | Player | TPC Southwind Read | Board Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | Best complete combination of control, green-hitting and birdie creation. | Up |
| 2 | Hideki Matsuyama | Elite iron control, excellent current form and proven Southwind winning comfort. | Up |
| 3 | Matt Fitzpatrick | Accuracy-and-approach profile fits a water-heavy positional test extremely well. | Up |
| 4 | Tom Kim | Recent winning form, sharp approaches and enough putting to sustain a low round. | Hold |
| 5 | Tommy Fleetwood | Controlled tee game, strong recovery play and proven success on this course. | Up |
| 6 | Sam Burns | Strong scoring and putting profile with past Southwind success. | Up |
| 7 | Cameron Young | Power is now paired with better control and repeated high finishes. | Hold |
| 8 | Xander Schauffele | Few weaknesses, strong four-round floor and fresh runner-up form. | Hold |
| 9 | Ryan Fox | Major-winning confidence and strong par-4 scoring keep the ceiling high. | Hold |
| 10 | Rory McIlroy | Power and scoring ceiling remain elite; position off the tee is the key Memphis variable. | Up |
| 11 | Ludvig Åberg | Excellent driving combination with enough approach quality to attack Southwind. | Up |
| 12 | Min Woo Lee | Power creates shorter approaches; control around water determines whether he contends. | Hold |
| 13 | Robert MacIntyre | Balanced, patient profile with recent high-finish form and good pressure temperament. | Hold |
| 14 | Michael Brennan | Fresh winner with a strong driving profile; quick turnaround and Southwind debut are the questions. | Down slightly |
| 15 | Jackson Koivun | Fearless scoring profile and recent win, but Southwind is a different positional challenge. | Down slightly |
| 16 | Alex Noren | Fresh top 10, controlled veteran game and strong motivation near the Top 50 line. | Up |
| 17 | Michael Thorbjornsen | Winning power ceiling is obvious; precision around Southwind keeps him just outside the 15. | Down slightly |
| 18 | Brian Harman | Recent 3M top three helps, but the overall ball-striking picture is less complete than the names above. | Down |
| 19 | Ryan Gerard | Approach play can be excellent, but current momentum is less convincing after Wyndham. | Down |
| 20 | Justin Thomas | High ceiling and fresh top 15, but current green-hitting and putting consistency keep him outside. | Hold |
Horses for Courses: TPC Southwind
Recent form matters, but TPC Southwind has repeatedly rewarded players who understand its angles, water hazards, Bermuda surfaces and demanding closing stretch. These names deserve extra attention because they have already shown they can handle this specific playoff test.
| Player | Southwind Record | 2026 Read |
|---|---|---|
| Hideki Matsuyama | 2024 champion | Course history and current form line up at exactly the right time. |
| Justin Rose | 2025 champion | Defending champion remains a course-history threat even though he does not crack the final hot 20. |
| Viktor Hovland | T2 in 2024; T13 in 2023; T20 in 2022 | One of the strongest repeat Southwind records in the field. |
| Scottie Scheffler | T3 in 2025 | Already proved his complete game translates cleanly to this course. |
| Tommy Fleetwood | T3 in 2023 | Course comfort reinforces an already strong current-form case. |
| Sam Burns | T5 in 2024 | Bermuda putting and scoring upside fit the venue. |
| J.J. Spaun | Runner-up in 2025 | Another proven Southwind result worth remembering in a no-cut week. |
Course-history takeaway:
Matsuyama and Fleetwood receive the strongest boost because their Southwind history is backed by current high-finish form. Rose, Hovland and Spaun remain dangerous course-history names but sit outside the final CaddyBytes Top 20.
Final CaddyBytes FedEx St. Jude Championship Top 15
This is the final tournament-week ranking for winning and high-finish upside at TPC Southwind. The order is built for the tournament itself; playoff advancement pressure is secondary.
| Rank | Player | Why He Can Win | Final Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | Elite green-hitting, scoring pressure, controlled driving and two recent elite finishes. | Best complete win profile |
| 2 | Hideki Matsuyama | T3, T5 and T7 in his last three starts plus a 2024 Southwind victory. | Hottest course-fit anchor |
| 3 | Matt Fitzpatrick | Top-level approach control, accuracy and a recent T3 at the Scottish Open. | Precision contender |
| 4 | Tom Kim | Scottish Open winner, Wyndham T5 and a sharp approach/scoring profile. | Form-and-irons contender |
| 5 | Tommy Fleetwood | T4 at The Open, T13 in Scotland and a previous T3 at Southwind. | CB Caddie Hunch |
| 6 | Sam Burns | Third at The Open, elite putting upside and a T5 here in 2024. | Putting-powered win threat |
| 7 | Cameron Young | Runner-up at The Open, T8 at Rocket and a much stronger complete driving profile. | High-ceiling scorer |
| 8 | Xander Schauffele | Fresh Rocket runner-up and one of the field's strongest four-round players. | Steady title threat |
| 9 | Ryan Fox | Arrives as The Open champion with strong par-4 scoring confidence. | Major-winning momentum |
| 10 | Rory McIlroy | Winning ceiling remains enormous and the T7 in Scotland showed the game is close. | Ceiling keeps him top 10 |
| 11 | Ludvig Åberg | T9 at The Open and one of the strongest driving combinations in the field. | Modern Southwind fit |
| 12 | Min Woo Lee | Scottish Open runner-up with power that can shorten a demanding par-70 card. | Power with upside |
| 13 | Robert MacIntyre | Scottish Open T3 and a controlled scoring profile suited to a pressure week. | Quiet high-finish threat |
| 14 | Michael Brennan | Wyndham champion, T15 at Rocket and playing with complete confidence. | Hot hand; No. 47 pressure |
| 15 | Jackson Koivun | 3M Open champion with fearless scoring and everything to gain from the No. 70 starting position. | Upside plus maximum urgency |
Playoff-pressure overlay:
Brennan begins at No. 47 and is close to the BMW line, while Koivun starts No. 70 and needs a major move. Noren begins No. 46 just outside this Top 15. That urgency can sharpen a player, but it does not override the win profile.
Final Five Just Outside the Top 15
| Rank | Player | Why He Is Close | What Keeps Him Outside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Alex Noren | T7 at Wyndham, veteran control and No. 46 playoff urgency. | Top group carries slightly stronger winning ceilings. |
| 17 | Michael Thorbjornsen | Rocket Classic champion with legitimate power and scoring upside. | Southwind demands more precision than Detroit. |
| 18 | Brian Harman | T3 at the 3M Open and starts the week under heavy Top 50 pressure. | Missed Wyndham cut and less complete current tee-to-green profile. |
| 19 | Ryan Gerard | T8 at Rocket and enough approach talent to get hot quickly. | Wyndham missed cut adds current-form risk. |
| 20 | Justin Thomas | T14 at Wyndham and proven high-end scoring ceiling. | Needs more consistent green-hitting and putting to crack this Top 15. |
FedEx St. Jude Championship Value Plays and Deeper Watches
With only 69 players and no cut, deeper names have four rounds to climb. These players sit outside the final Top 20 but have at least one strong reason to stay on the radar.
Justin Rose
The defending champion knows exactly how to manage TPC Southwind. He is not carrying the same recent momentum as the Top 20, but four guaranteed rounds make him dangerous.
Defending championVeteran control
J.J. Spaun
Runner-up here last year and capable of creating repeated approach chances when the irons are sharp.
Southwind runner-upApproach play
Maverick McNealy
Starts exactly on the No. 50 line, so every position matters. A balanced scoring profile and four guaranteed rounds give him room to move.
No. 50 pressureFour-round upside
Harris English
Begins one position outside the BMW line at No. 51. Veteran control and immediate pressure create a clear reason to expect full focus from Thursday.
Bubble urgencyVeteran game
Collin Morikawa
One of the strongest accuracy-and-iron profiles in the entire field. He missed the hot-results Top 20, but his game shape remains a natural Southwind fit.
AccuracyElite irons
FedEx St. Jude Championship Risk Flags
Wyndham Exhaustion
Brennan, Matsuyama, Kim, Noren and other Wyndham finishers turn around immediately for a hot Memphis week. Current form is a positive, but fatigue is real after four pressure-filled rounds.
Power Without Position
TPC Southwind punishes drives that bring water and poor angles into play. Length alone does not create a safe winning profile.
Cold Conversion
A player can hit plenty of greens and still lose ground if birdie chances repeatedly slide by. The winner will need stretches where the putter converts.
Bubble Over-Pressure
Players around No. 50 may press too hard if the standings start moving against them. Motivation helps only when it remains controlled.
CB Caddie Hunch — Tommy Fleetwood
Tommy Fleetwood gets the CaddyBytes hunch. He arrives with a T4 at The Open and T13 in Scotland, has already finished T3 at TPC Southwind, and owns the controlled tee-to-green game that can stay aggressive without constantly bringing the course's water into play.
Backup hunch — Sam Burns: third at The Open, strong putting upside and a T5 at Southwind in 2024 make him one of the most dangerous players just below the obvious headline names.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Fantasy Update Schedule
| Update | What Changes | Page Status |
|---|---|---|
| Monday tournament-week board | Who's Hot 20, Memphis player-fit board, Southwind history, final Top 15, five just outside, values, risk flags and Caddie Hunch. | This version. |
| Wednesday final | Check withdrawals, field changes, weather, tee-time notes and any final player-status changes. | Next pre-round update. |
| 36-hole update | Evaluate original picks against the live leaderboard and Top 50 pressure. | After Friday. |
| 54-hole update | Re-rank Sunday win contenders and grade the original board entering the final round. | After Saturday. |
| Post-event grades | Final results and grades for the original Top 15, five just outside, values and Caddie Hunch. | After Sunday. |
Fantasy note: This page is for CaddyBytes fantasy golf analysis and tournament coverage. It does not provide gambling picks, odds, sportsbook information, or betting advice. Rankings will be updated if the field changes before the opening round.